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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
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Car and Driver wrote an article about Toyota's conservative EV plans and in it they mention that Toyota plans to sell 10,000 bZ4Xs in 2023.


Why Toyota Prefers Hybrids
Toyota is aiming to sell only 10,000 units of the bZ4X this year, meaning it could be rarer than even the GR86 sports car, which sold nearly 12,000 units in 2022. That would also put the bZ4X significantly behind the 2022 sales performance of several of its EV rivals: Ford sold just under 40,000 Mustang Mach-Es and Volkswagen sold more than 20,000 ID.4 models, and sales of those SUVs could increase even more in 2023 due to expanded production.

Toyota likes to emphasize its strong hybrid sales instead. The company sold over 500,000 electrified vehicles in 2022, the vast majority of which were hybrids and plug-in hybrids (the fuel-cell Mirai is also included in this number, but only made up just over 2000 units of that total). Toyota has been clear about how it plans to prioritize hybrid production over EVs as a way of managing the finite amount of raw materials, particularly for batteries, that go into building an electrified vehicle. With the same amount of materials needed for a single bZ4X, Toyota says it can build 90 Prius hybrids or 60 plug-in-hybrid RAV4 Primes. The company believes that maximizing hybrid sales is a better play for reducing carbon emissions, at least given current market conditions.

Even though the sales expectations are small, Toyota acknowledges that a renewed push to get the word out about the bZ4X is still necessary after the recall and stop-sale grounded the initial rollout. There will be a renewed marketing campaign launching in May to make sure that customers haven't forgotten that the bZ4X exists. We found a few hundred new bZ4X models for sale through a search of nationwide dealer inventory, and a slightly lower number of the Toyota's twin, the Subaru Solterra. While Subaru says that the Solterra is available in all 50 states, Toyota describes the bZ4X on its website as, "available in select states only and in extremely limited quantities."
 

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Toyota Motors North America electrified vehicle sales in the US for 2022. I'm sure that Toyota plans to sell more than 10,000 sequoia hybrids for 2023.
  1. 149,938 RAV4
  2. 69,720 SIENNA
  3. 43,711 HIGHLANDER
  4. 41,830 CAMRY
  5. 33,683 VENZA
  6. 27,799 COROLLA
  7. 25,062 PRIUS
  8. 18,567 RAV4 Prime
  9. 17,194 RX
  10. 15,011 TUNDRA
  11. 13,873 NX
  12. 13,607 ES
  13. 11,857 Prius Prime
  14. 6,884 UX
  15. 4,797 SEQUOIA
  16. 3,565 AVALON
  17. 3,507 NX PLUG-INHYBRID
  18. 2,094 MIRAI
  19. 1,220 BZ4X
  20. 78 LS
  21. 19 LC
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
Toyota Motors North America electrified vehicle sales in the US for 2022. I'm sure that Toyota plans to sell more than 10,000 sequoia hybrids for 2023.
  1. 149,938 RAV4
  2. 69,720 SIENNA
  3. 43,711 HIGHLANDER
  4. 41,830 CAMRY
  5. 33,683 VENZA
  6. 27,799 COROLLA
  7. 25,062 PRIUS
  8. 18,567 RAV4 Prime
  9. 17,194 RX
  10. 15,011 TUNDRA
  11. 13,873 NX
  12. 13,607 ES
  13. 11,857 Prius Prime
  14. 6,884 UX
  15. 4,797 SEQUOIA
  16. 3,565 AVALON
  17. 3,507 NX PLUG-INHYBRID
  18. 2,094 MIRAI
  19. 1,220 BZ4X
  20. 78 LS
  21. 19 LC
Given the popularity of the truck I think that Toyota could sell that many Sequoias if they can produce them.
 

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Given the popularity of the truck I think that Toyota could sell that many Sequoias if they can produce them.
Well the Tundra truck (Starting at $37,865) comes as gasoline and hybrid versions, and in December less than 23% were sold as hybrids. The Sequoia is only a hybrid version and carries a base MSRP of $58,300, which is one of the highest starting prices among full-size SUVs. The price rises to $64,700 and $70,900 for the midrange Limited and Platinum trims, respectively. The range-topping Capstone starts at $75,300.

In December of 2022 Toyota sold 2073 Sequoias (all hybrids) and 9975 (2261 hybrids) Tundras. So certainly Sequoia and Tundra hybrid sales of over 20,000 apiece seems like a conservative estimate for 2023.
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
Well the Tundra truck (Starting at $37,865) comes as gasoline and hybrid versions, and in December less than 23% were sold as hybrids. The Sequoia is only a hybrid version and carries a base MSRP of $58,300, which is one of the highest starting prices among full-size SUVs. The price rises to $64,700 and $70,900 for the midrange Limited and Platinum trims, respectively. The range-topping Capstone starts at $75,300.

In December of 2022 Toyota sold 2073 Sequoias (all hybrids) and 9975 (2261 hybrids) Tundras. So certainly Sequoia and Tundra hybrid sales of over 20,000 apiece seems like a conservative estimate for 2023.
It'll also be interesting to see how many sales Toyota will get for the new Tacoma that's coming out soon. Especially if that's a hybrid as well.
 

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It'll also be interesting to see how many sales Toyota will get for the new Tacoma that's coming out soon. Especially if that's a hybrid as well.
Toyota has pledged to at least offer the option of a hybrid on all their models by 2025. The last remaining models are the Tacoma and the 4Runner. The Supra will be retired as they have BMW engines and hybrids are not possible.

Toyota (not including Lexus) sold roughly 528,323 electrified vehicles in 2021 the majority of which were non plug in hybrids, and a small percentage were fuel cell and plug-in vehicles. Toyota also sold 335,587 vehicles of all types in California. Just as an observation 35% of 335,587 is 117,455 .

For 2022 Toyota and Lexus are the top selling makes in California. It is pretty obvious that Toyota is not going to sell anywhere near 35% of it's vehicles as Zero Emission Vehicles. The 35% ZEVs is the goal of CARB for 2026. CARB permits for 1 out 5 ZEVs to be a PHEV with a 50 mile electric range, but Toyota does not have a 50 mile range PHEV.

I have considered the possibility that Toyota dealers will only receive hybrid models in CA for 2026. Hybrids are not ZEVs but it will give Toyota a negotiation point. Toyota cannot be banned in California, nor will they tolerate a large financial penalty. But California cannot lose Toyota either.

I think that California overall automobiles sales will reach 35% ZEVs by 2026, but half that requirement (or more) will be met by Tesla. Tesla sales are already almost 10% of the market in CA. In the next 4 years, given the recent price reductions, I think Tesla will reach 17.5% or more.
 
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